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Huge Week for the Dollar with Key Data Due Early April

Posted by TopstepTrader on March 31, 2019

The dollar rally faces a test as the first week of April brings a flood of economic data. Take a look at some (certainly not all) of the key statistics due out Monday through Friday:

  • Monday: Retail Sales, Manufacturing
  • Tuesday: Durable Goods
  • Wednesday: ADP jobs
  • Thursday: Jobless Claims
  • Friday: JOBS, JOBS, JOBS

With the U.S. Dollar posting its best monthly gain of 2019 in March, surprises or disappointments in the data will help traders determine whether the rally has legs.

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Topics: Forex, US Dollar, EUR/USD, economic data reports, TopstepFX, USD/JPY

First Quarter Recap: Oil Leads as Nearly Everything Wins

Posted by TopstepTrader on March 26, 2019


After experiencing losses last year, almost every asset class is moving higher through the first quarter 2019. Stocks are rallying. Bonds are bid. The dollar is up. But the biggest gains have been in the energy sector, including a sharp rebound in the price of Crude Oil.

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Topics: US Dollar, Nasdaq, Crude Oil

This is Why the British Pound is Up 3%+ This Year

Posted by TopstepFX on February 05, 2018

The theme heading into 2017 was one of worry. Many in the market were worried there was going to be something to be worried about, expecting factors outside of typical “norms” would dominate the global economy. Brexit was one of the first “shocks.” Then President Donald Trump’s election in November 2016 magnified these concerns.

While equity markets took Brexit in stride, the Pound fell sharply. On June 23-24, 2016, Sterling fell from above 1.50 in the hours leading up to the vote results to settle at 1.35 at the end of the week – a 10% decline. By year end 2016, the Pound fell another 10% to close at 1.2343.

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Topics: Forex, US Dollar, GBP/USD, British Pound

Will the EUR/USD Uptrend Continue? Here are the Factors Driving It Higher

Posted by TopstepFX on February 02, 2018

EUR/USD was in a strong uptrend throughout all of 2017, rising more than 14%. The Euro, in general, was the best performing major currency of 2017. What made the move so impressive was that it was somewhat unexpected. As discussed, the U.S. Dollar came into the year on a strong note. However, fears of political instability subsided, Eurozone growth surged, and the European Central Bank (ECB) was forced to begin withdrawing its stimulus.

Those three factors turned the market around. 

As the chart below shows, the first major breakout in EUR/USD came mid-April on the weekend of the French presidential elections (April 23) when it became clear that Emmanuel Macron would defeat Marine Le Pen. The market feared Le Pen would ride in on a global wave of populism and might pull an upset – potentially leading the French to exit the EU. That did not happen, and the EUR/USD surged. 

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Topics: Forex, US Dollar, Euro, EUR/USD

These are the 3 Factors Driving the Forex Market Right Now

Posted by TopstepFX on January 31, 2018

Until we figure out what’s driving the U.S. Dollar, we anticipate the following three themes will dominate trading in 2018: economic growth, global central bank policies, and global geopolitical uncertainty.

Economic Growth

Things are going well in the global economy 10 years after the Great Recession. The Federal Reserve expects the U.S. economy will grow at 2.1% in 2018, down slightly from growth of 2.4% in 2017.

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Topics: Forex, US Dollar

What Happened to King Dollar?

Posted by TopstepFX on January 29, 2018

Everyone thought 2017 was going to be the year of King Dollar. Following President Donald Trump’s election on November 8, 2016, the U.S. Dollar (USD) rallied more than 4.5% against the Euro (EUR) — gaining from 1.1018 to close 2016 at 1.0521. 

But that U.S. Dollar rally quickly fizzled. EUR/USD reached its low (1.0340) on January 3. Through the rest of the year, the Dollar lost 16%, closing at 1.2018 on December 29.

What happened? Not only did the Dollar abruptly turn in its tracks, but that turn came despite the fact that the Federal Reserve remained the only central bank taking a prolonged tightening stance throughout the year.

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Topics: Forex, US Dollar

'Extremely' Important Change Sends U.S. Dollar to 3-Year Low, Here's Where it May Go From Here

Posted by TopstepTrader on January 24, 2018

"A weaker Dollar is good for trade." That is something that economists and market participants know.

But it's not something that you usually hear coming out of the mouth of the U.S. Treasury Secretary. In fact, the Treasury Secretary for decades has repeated some version of the phrase: "A strong Dollar is in the best interests of the United States." 

Hearing this morning's comments from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin completely shook up the market - and added gasoline to a year-long explosive move lower in the U.S. Dollar. Here's why.

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Topics: Forex, US Dollar

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