<img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=174932623114557&amp;ev=PageView&amp;noscript=1">

Could a 'Hawkish Cut' Lead to the Next Major $USD Rally?

Posted by Mark Meadows, TopstepFX on July 29, 2019

In November 2017, the Bank of England hiked interest rates for the first time in 10 years. The market dubbed that a “dovish hike,” encapsulating the idea that though the BoE hiked interest rates, it provided forward guidance that made it very clear it would not be hiking in the near-term future. Then, Brexit uncertainties grew and the BoE has not hiked interest rates since.

Right now, the market is high on euphoria around the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates. But what happens when it’s a hawkish cut? The Dollar gets sent on its next leg higher, that’s what.

Our base case: the Fed rate cut will be the impetus for the Dollar to strengthen—maybe not immediately, but in the days and weeks after.

Read More

Topics: US Dollar, EUR/USD, Currency Pages, trading strategy, TopstepFX

Take a Look at the Up and Down Dollar Action Ahead of a Fed Rate Cut

Posted by TopstepTrader on July 22, 2019

The dollar is experiencing notable ups and downs amid changing interest rate expectations lately. The volatility comes ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next rate announcement, which happens just a few hours before markets close on the last trading day of the month. Also making things interesting, a bunch of key economic reports are due in the days just before and after the anticipated rate cut.

Read More

Topics: US Dollar, Currency Pages, trading strategy, TopstepFX

What’s Next for the Buck after Dollar Spikes on Jobs Data?

Posted by TopstepTrader on July 09, 2019

The Dollar lit up like a roman candle after the July Fourth holiday. The currency benefited from a stronger-than-expected June jobs report, and its move comes just two days after President Donald Trump suggested that the United States should begin manipulating its currency to better compete with China and Europe.

Read More

Topics: US Dollar, EUR/USD, economic data, USD/JPY

Second Quarter Recap: Stocks and Bonds Up, Commodities Mixed, Bitcoin Soars

Posted by TopstepTrader on July 02, 2019

The first half of 2019 is in the history books and, after solid gains in the first quarter, stocks and bonds added to the bullish trend in Q2. Crude Oil was little changed and Gold was a bright spot as the commodities market saw mixed action over the past three months. Lastly, many interesting stories were told in the currency markets, including a 220% surge in Bitcoin.

Read More

Topics: Gold, Metals, Bitcoin, U.S. Treasuries, US Dollar, Nasdaq, Crude Oil

Dollar Dips as Pound and Euro Rebound

Posted by TopstepTrader on June 19, 2019

The Dollar is giving back some ground against the Euro and the British Pound after several weeks of gains. The trend reversal comes as global Central Banks adopt a more dovish tilt, while Brexit uncertainty clouds the U.K., and as President Trump steps into the currency debate.

Read More

Topics: Forex, US Dollar, Euro, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, economic data reports

Traders Brace for a Barrage of Key Events: Here’s What’s Coming

Posted by TopstepTrader on June 17, 2019

Stocks and bonds have been rallying, while yields fall and the Dollar slips, as weak economic data fuels expectations that the Federal Reserve will aggressively cut rates later in the year. That theory will be tested when the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets later this week.

Read More

Topics: Futures, U.S. Treasuries, US Dollar, Crude Oil, economic data reports, European Central Bank

Huge Week for the Dollar with Key Data Due Early April

Posted by TopstepTrader on March 31, 2019

The dollar rally faces a test as the first week of April brings a flood of economic data. Take a look at some (certainly not all) of the key statistics due out Monday through Friday:

  • Monday: Retail Sales, Manufacturing
  • Tuesday: Durable Goods
  • Wednesday: ADP jobs
  • Thursday: Jobless Claims
  • Friday: JOBS, JOBS, JOBS

With the U.S. Dollar posting its best monthly gain of 2019 in March, surprises or disappointments in the data will help traders determine whether the rally has legs.

Read More

Topics: Forex, US Dollar, EUR/USD, economic data reports, TopstepFX, USD/JPY

First Quarter Recap: Oil Leads as Nearly Everything Wins

Posted by TopstepTrader on March 26, 2019


After experiencing losses last year, almost every asset class is moving higher through the first quarter 2019. Stocks are rallying. Bonds are bid. The dollar is up. But the biggest gains have been in the energy sector, including a sharp rebound in the price of Crude Oil.

Read More

Topics: US Dollar, Nasdaq, Crude Oil

This is Why the British Pound is Up 3%+ This Year

Posted by TopstepFX on February 05, 2018

The theme heading into 2017 was one of worry. Many in the market were worried there was going to be something to be worried about, expecting factors outside of typical “norms” would dominate the global economy. Brexit was one of the first “shocks.” Then President Donald Trump’s election in November 2016 magnified these concerns.

While equity markets took Brexit in stride, the Pound fell sharply. On June 23-24, 2016, Sterling fell from above 1.50 in the hours leading up to the vote results to settle at 1.35 at the end of the week – a 10% decline. By year end 2016, the Pound fell another 10% to close at 1.2343.

Read More

Topics: Forex, US Dollar, GBP/USD, British Pound

Will the EUR/USD Uptrend Continue? Here are the Factors Driving It Higher

Posted by TopstepFX on February 02, 2018

EUR/USD was in a strong uptrend throughout all of 2017, rising more than 14%. The Euro, in general, was the best performing major currency of 2017. What made the move so impressive was that it was somewhat unexpected. As discussed, the U.S. Dollar came into the year on a strong note. However, fears of political instability subsided, Eurozone growth surged, and the European Central Bank (ECB) was forced to begin withdrawing its stimulus.

Those three factors turned the market around. 

As the chart below shows, the first major breakout in EUR/USD came mid-April on the weekend of the French presidential elections (April 23) when it became clear that Emmanuel Macron would defeat Marine Le Pen. The market feared Le Pen would ride in on a global wave of populism and might pull an upset – potentially leading the French to exit the EU. That did not happen, and the EUR/USD surged. 

Read More

Topics: Forex, US Dollar, Euro, EUR/USD

Subscribe to Email Updates

Recent Posts

Popular

Posts by Topic

see all