Friday’s payroll data could shake up a Treasury market that has already been reeling lately. Expectations are for another strong report, but nowhere near the 304,000 jobs added in January. Treasury prices are trending lower ahead of the report — a sign, perhaps, that some expect another upside surprise in the headline number.
We have a HUGE WEEK for markets ahead. Take a look at the economic events that are poised to move forex markets in the next five days:
- Monday, 10:30 PM ET: Reserve Bank of Australia
- Wednesday, 10:00 AM ET: Bank of Canada
- Thursday, 7:45 AM ET: European Central Bank
- Friday, 8:30 AM ET: U.S. February Non-Farm Payroll Report
Here’s a look at how all these events may shake out in the market.
This week, we're launching a new video series: Tip of the Week, where TopstepTrader's founder and CVO Michael Patak shares lessons he's learned in more than a decade of trading — and more than 7 years of funding proprietary futures traders.
This week, Michael talks about how he found and learned to embrace his trading mantra: Always Trade for Tomorrow. Even though it sounds so simple, it cost Michael $90,000 in blown-up trading accounts to learn this lesson. That's because ego, excitement and passion all cloud a trader's judgment as they are in the midst of a losing battle.
Here's Michael's take on the first Lesson of the Week: Always Trade for Tomorrow.
Not happy with what you're paying at the gas pump? President Trump is on the case.
President Trump is known for his free spirited Twitter feed. And he occasionally uses it to measure how much influence he has on the price of Crude Oil. Monday morning was the latest example, when he blasted OPEC for keeping prices too high.
The Tweet had an initial impact, but did little to arrest the recent increase in Crude Oil's price. Let's take a look.
Topics: Crude Oil
Looking for volatility? Keep an eye on the metals market and the price action in Gold. While the yellow metal has been grinding higher over the past few months, wide intraday swings sent prices higher and lower last week. The wild action has some players wondering if Gold is ready to reach new highs.
Twice this week, I’ve been noticeably “scared” to enter a trade.
The first time was Monday, when I noticed an opportunity while watching the Market Forecast with TopstepTrader’s Senior Performance Coach John Hoagland. As he does every day at 8:15 AM CT live on TopstepTrader's Facebook page, John brought up the Crude Oil chart. It showed Crude was selling off hard to $51.26, slightly below a double swing low at $51.33 from January 17 and January 28. It was a clear opportunity.
But I missed it.
As the chart above shows, the price even came back to test that level two hours later. You’d think that this would be a great opportunity, but instead it just confirmed my thoughts that the market was “heavy.” The market looked heavy. It looked like the support was going to give.
It didn’t, and with the benefit of hindsight, we see that prices rallied that day $1.50 and have been rallying ever since. Opportunity missed again.
There were some big moves in equity markets this week. The run higher that started right before the New Year finally hit a snag. And now the chart looks like it might be creating a lower high — at least that's what our Market Analyst Mark Meadows has to say. That's not good for equity bulls.
But not so fast, says Senior Performance Coach John Hoagland. He thinks that there are some areas of repair lower in the charts, but that the path of least resistance is higher. Here's the debate.
Are you looking for the best, most concise trading advice that you can find. Then look no further — we have you covered on this Best of Limit Up! episode. Over the year since the Limit Up! podcast launched, Topstep has talked with millionaire (and billionaire) traders and 'Market Wizards,' distilling their experience into actions and routines that you can implement in your trading.
In this episode, Topstep’s Eddie Horn walks listeners through prior conversations with five trading legends — Jack Schwager, Brett Steenbarger, Linda Raschke, Tony Saliba and Larry Benedict. Combined, these guests have taken untold fortunes from futures, options and forex markets. And now they'll share with you those key factors that helped them do it.
The Federal Reserve meeting proved to be the event of the week. By not only reiterating their cautious approach, but also walking back quantitative tightening, the Fed put a bid under markets. Whether this is enough juice to get equity markets moving to new all-time highs is an issue for debate.
In this week's Weekly Review, Mark takes issue with the idea that the Fed has to support equity markets, while Dan continues to drink the Kool-Aid and call for more accommodation. Check out their reactions to how futures markets moved this week.
2019 has seen a couple new funded traders get off to red-hot starts. We talked a couple weeks ago about how Gabriel F. in Spain added $26,000 in profits in 33 trading days.
But it's not just Gabriel that has been able to add big profits to his trading account recently. Bill M. in Illinois gained nearly $27,000 in profits in his Funded Account® over 46 trading days. And their two trading styles could not be less alike, proving that you can make money in a multitude of different ways.
Whereas Gabriel sticks with Crude Oil and equity futures, Bill trades anything and everything. He's held positions in currencies (Australian Dollar, British Pound), metals (Copper, Gold), energies (Crude Oil, Natural Gas), agriculture products (Live Cattle), financials (Ultra Bond) and equities (Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, Nikkei).
Also different: their reward-to-risk ratios. Gabriel had a perfect 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio; Bill's average winning trade is actually less than his average losing trade (+$471.82 vs -$571.65). To stay profitable, Bill has nearly 70% winning trades and 57% winning days. And, critically, he never loses too much on any one day — his largest winning day is $4,776 vs. a largest losing day of $1,550.
Here's a closer look at Bill's equity curve, which is a beautiful lower left to upper right pattern.