Funded trader Adam V. has been with Topstep for almost 3 years now, and we were lucky enough to have him stop by our Chicago studios Monday to talk about Gold and his journey through the Trading Combine. In this edition of The Weekly Preview, Adam and Dan have a great conversation about the upcoming Fed rate decision, looming market volatility, and why working with a trading coach is so important. We hope you enjoy!
Folks, I must confess that I didn't pay much attention to the markets this weekend. I was both flat, and extremely interested to see what Shaquille O'Neal could do as a DJ at Lollapalooza (the answer is that he continues to be one of America's greatest cultural treasures). It was a rough Monday morning. I placed an online order at the wrong Starbucks, then proceeded to do a literal spit-take once I finally looked at the S&P futures quotes...
The news driving markets continues to play out like a professional wrestling match. There's a little bit of everything: heroes, villains, threats, heel-turns, over-dramatic commentary. The only major difference is that at least a handful of people at a wrestling match presumably know exactly how it will end (apologies to any readers if we just ruined the magic of the WWE).
Now would be a good time to get caught up on the action so far...
US Hog Futures prices are surging. While a swine flu outbreak tightens supplies, rising Chinese purchases of US stock are driving up demand. The trend is worth watching because, even if you’re not hogwild about trading meat futures, prices might be driven even higher by the latest developments on the US-China trade front.
Market predictions are all over the map after the jaw-dropping fall and rebound in the S&P 500 over the past six months. Some believe the market’s 14% swoon in the fourth quarter 2018 was unjustified given that the U.S. economy remains strong.
Others worry that, after a 13.3% year-to-date rebound, the market has rallied too fast given recent signs that the economy and earnings growth are slowing. The net result is an environment where price action remains headline-driven, with several key levels to watch heading into Q2.
In European trading, the Euro (EUR/USD) broke through major resistance from the September 2017 high at 1.2090 on a spot basis. The move marks the second consecutive jump higher that has seen the price gain from the mid 1.19s.
In the front-month futures contract ($6EH8), the price has rallied from 1.1981 to 1.2180. (Futures contracts trade at a premium because interest-rate differentials are factored into the delivery date.)
Does this move present an opportunity? Or is it in its waning days?
It's a slower time in markets - but that doesn't mean that you can't be progressing and working towards your goals. Being a professional trader is about more than placing trades. It's about learning and studying the markets - and then implementing what you've learned to gain an edge.
These books are more than trading manuals. Some are stories, some are non-fiction and others are more educational. So whatever you are feeling this holiday season, we have you covered.
Please give it a watch and let us know any feedback in the comments.
Is it Groundhog's Day? Wake up, check prices, Gold ($GCG8) losses. Repeat. This is one of the most prevailing trends in markets right now. Prices have come down more than $120 since the September yearly highs were reached. Now, the next level of support on the charts is $1,210 - the March lows for the February 2018 contract. If Gold can't find any support in the near term, additional declines of $30 seem inevitable.
With that pressure on Gold, the Euro ($6EZ7) is also seeing 0.4% declines - pushing below 1.1750. There seems to be a lot of support on the chart between this level and 1.1700. It would be surprising to see a strong move lower ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting. The central bank is expected to raise interest rates 0.25%. While that may seem bullish for the USD, the FOMC has raised interest rates numerous times this year - all the while the USD has lost 15 cents against the Euro.
Running down these markets, as well as Crude Oil ($CLF8) and the Emini S&P 500 ($ESH8), is our Senior Performance Coach John Hoagland.
Topics: Market Updates
This is going to be a busy week for currencies - with a whole slate of data and central bank meetings. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision, with expectations that it will hike interest rates another 0.25%. Given the fact that a new FOMC Chair will soon take the helm, the market is likely to pay closer attention to the statement's language and Fed Chair Yellen's press conference at 1:30 PM CT.
Then, as the market digests those fireworks, the Bank of England and European Central Bank will come out with their own interest rate decisions on Thursday morning. Neither bank is expected to raise rates, though the market will closely monitor ECB President Draghi's comments at his press conference (7:30 AM CT Thursday) to see what he has in store for the pace of asset purchases.
Before all this takes hold though, Senior Performance Coach John Hoagland runs down the U.S. Dollar, as well as equities ($ESH8), Crude Oil ($CLF8) and Gold ($GCG8) in today's market forecast.
Topics: Market Updates
Yesterday's question of the day was whether the sell off in equities would have legs. The answer - at least for now - appears to be no. However, that would come with a big caveat: prices need to show the ability to bounce again. After all - that has been the story of 2017. Every pullback has been met with even more aggressive buying.
Early in Thursday's trading the Emini S&P 500 ($ESZ7) is trading down a point - but towards the lower end of its range. Crude Oil ($CLF8) is on the opposite end - trading at the top of its daily range and up 0.7% on the session.
Gold ($GCG8) is experiencing some pressure, falling $10 and back towards levels not seen since July. The entire metals complex is down, with Silver ($SIH8) falling within $0.50 of its yearly low.
Question of the day: Will the Euro move more than 10 pips today?
Here's Senior Performance Coach John Hoagland running through today's markets and important levels to watch.
Topics: Market Updates