These are the 3 Factors Driving the Forex Market Right Now

Posted by TopstepFX on January 31, 2018

Until we figure out what’s driving the U.S. Dollar, we anticipate the following three themes will dominate trading in 2018: economic growth, global central bank policies, and global geopolitical uncertainty.

Economic Growth

Things are going well in the global economy 10 years after the Great Recession. The Federal Reserve expects the U.S. economy will grow at 2.1% in 2018, down slightly from growth of 2.4% in 2017.

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Topics: Forex, US Dollar

What Happened to King Dollar?

Posted by TopstepFX on January 29, 2018

Everyone thought 2017 was going to be the year of King Dollar. Following President Donald Trump’s election on November 8, 2016, the U.S. Dollar (USD) rallied more than 4.5% against the Euro (EUR) — gaining from 1.1018 to close 2016 at 1.0521. 

But that U.S. Dollar rally quickly fizzled. EUR/USD reached its low (1.0340) on January 3. Through the rest of the year, the Dollar lost 16%, closing at 1.2018 on December 29.

What happened? Not only did the Dollar abruptly turn in its tracks, but that turn came despite the fact that the Federal Reserve remained the only central bank taking a prolonged tightening stance throughout the year.

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Topics: Forex, US Dollar

3 Things Moving the Forex Market This Week

Posted by TopstepTrader on January 28, 2018

The U.S. Dollar's rout continued in the past week, where it was impacted by political jawboning. This time, it was the U.S. Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, who seemingly reversed a 25-year-old strong Dollar policy

Mnuchin's statement was contradicted 24 hours later by U.S. President Donald Trump, who said that he would expect the U.S. Dollar to get "stronger and stronger" during an interview on CNBC. But that didn't help the Dollar recover much — and it fell to a fresh 3-year low. 

This week, eyes will turn back to the fundamentals driving the global economy: Tuesday's German CPI data, Wednesday's FOMC statement, and Friday's U.S. employment report. Here's why.

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Topics: Forex, Futures, Weekly Outlook, EUR/USD

This is How You Capitalize on Highly Trending Markets

Posted by TopstepTrader on January 27, 2018

If we know one thing about these markets, it's that they are trending. The U.S. Dollar can't buy a bid — falling to a 3-year low this week. Equity futures are rallying closing on January 26 at their all-time highs. Crude Oil is near its recent highs. And markets aren't just slowly going the direction of the trend. These are strong swings.  

In this environment, you have to trade differently. That's the subject of our latest Coach's Playbook, where Dan, Mick and Hoag talk about ways to capitalize on the trend or, if you are a contrarian, ways to get out of its way.  Don't go into trading Monday without giving this a watch.

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Topics: Performance Coaching, Coach's Playbook, Forex, Futures

The Steps to Go From a Losing to a Winning Trader

Posted by TopstepTrader on January 25, 2018

If you don't relate to Anthony Crudele's story, you haven't been trading long enough. Anthony knows what it is like to blow up a trading account. He lost three $25,000 accounts when he first started trading - $50,000 of which was borrowed money. Then, on the last $10,000 he borrowed from his aunt, he finally got it

In this week's Limit Up, Anthony talks about his early struggles, what he now knows that he was doing wrong, and how he turned his trading around - going from someone deeply in debt to paying that off and buying his own seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). 

Check it out, and be sure to subscribe to Limit Up on iTunes, Google Play or Soundcloud to get the fresh episodes each week delivered to your inbox. 

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Topics: Trading Basics, Limit Up!, Forex, Futures Radio, Futures, Anthony Crudele

The Dos and Don’ts of Trading Expectations

Posted by TopstepTrader on January 24, 2018

Some people come into trading with high expectations, thinking they will earn enough to retire with just a few trades. We hear stories about traders like John Paulson who made billions shorting the housing market in 2008. Or George Soros who made $1 billion shorting the British Pound in 1992

What doesn't get covered in these news stories is the decades they put into their craft before they made it big. How they traded one and two lots to build up their confidence and performance. 

Not only do high expectations usually come crashing down quickly, but they can actually lead traders to make bad decisions. Avoid that problem with this checklist of dos and don’ts for setting expectations.

Watch our CVO Michael Patak and Senior Performance Coach John Hoagland talk about trading expectations in this episode of Trader Behavior. 

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Topics: Trading Basics, Trading Lessons, Forex, Futures

'Extremely' Important Change Sends U.S. Dollar to 3-Year Low, Here's Where it May Go From Here

Posted by TopstepTrader on January 24, 2018

"A weaker Dollar is good for trade." That is something that economists and market participants know.

But it's not something that you usually hear coming out of the mouth of the U.S. Treasury Secretary. In fact, the Treasury Secretary for decades has repeated some version of the phrase: "A strong Dollar is in the best interests of the United States." 

Hearing this morning's comments from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin completely shook up the market - and added gasoline to a year-long explosive move lower in the U.S. Dollar. Here's why.

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Topics: Forex, US Dollar

This is How a Winning Trader Bounced Back from Blowing Up an Account

Posted by TopstepTrader on January 22, 2018

You may not have heard of Linda Bradford Raschke. She is a commodities and futures trader with a career that spans four decades. Throughout her trading career, Raschke prioritized consistency and longevity. That's likely because, like many traders, her first experience trading her own account didn't go so well. 

Like many other floor traders, Raschke got her start with a $25,000 stake given her by another trader. She traded equity options in the pit of the Pacific Coast Stock Exchange. After an auspicious start where she doubled her money in three months, Raschke found herself in a position she thought she understood. As she told Schwager in New Market Wizards, she was short calls in a stock that was a takeover candidate with just one day to go to expiration. The stock was trading $32 and she was fine so long as the stock didn't go above $55. 

Then, the unexpected happened. Another company offered $65 for the shares and Raschke was out her $50,000 — plus another $30,000 as her account went into the debit. 

Instead of sending Raschke into a spiral, the loss only solidified her passion for trading. She was able to get another stake and never let that happen again. Here's how she bounced back to become one of the greatest traders of modern time. 

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Topics: Trading Basics, Trading Lessons, Market Wizards, Forex, Futures, Linda Bradford Raschke

3 Things Moving the Forex Market This Week

Posted by TopstepTrader on January 21, 2018

So far in 2018, the trend for a weaker U.S. Dollar has only continued. Last week, the Euro (EUR/USD; $6EH8) hit its highest level since December 2014.

But as we saw in 2017, forex trends can quickly change. There, the U.S. Dollar hit new highs early in January before abruptly turning around and entering a year-long downtrend. 

What's moving the forex market this week? 

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Topics: Forex, Futures, Weekly Outlook

This is How to Master a Trader's State of Mind

Posted by TopstepTrader on January 19, 2018

If you believe it, you can achieve it. OK, that's a ridiculous sentiment - but it bears some truth. Your state of mind is incredibly important to your trading performance. No, that doesn't mean that you can wish the market higher, lower or sideways. 

But if you come into the trading day thinking that there's no way you can dig yourself out of a hole you got in, for example, then you might as well not even trade that day. You have little shot at profits. 

How do you improve? Senior Performance Coach John Hoagland and Mick Ieronimo talk through it and share how they've kept a positive (but realistic) state of mind. Check it out and leave any feedback in the comments. Enjoy.

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Topics: Trader Behavior, Performance Coaching, Trading Basics, Forex, Futures

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