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S&P Daily Pre-Market Prep 5/4/17

Posted by Peter Davies on May 04, 2017

 2017-05-04_13-31-38.png

We are in the same spot as the past 2 days, so let's repeat.

Quoting 
We are at the top of the range, not hit the top yet but this is a line in the sand. So we have to look out for a headfake up, a reversal down from here OR a break of the range upside and a move up to new highs.

Which is saying it is going to go up or down.

Headfake - will pop the top and see absorption and sellers piling in
Break upside - will see a move up without the stopping volume we see in the headfake, for me the safest option is to go long when it falls back to the old high
Reversal down - any downside move with overwhelming volume

So while we are saying "it will go up or down" - we do have some things to look at for confirmation of which scenario is playing out.

In terms of "which prices to trade" - well - it's anywhere around here. No specific price, just specific action to look for.

2017-05-04_13-31-49.png

The range is widening, so I am looking at 2381.50 and 2387.25 as the extremes and not looking to do much within that.

2017-05-04_13-32-01.png
 
Yesterday we had 79.25 as the chop low and we moved down to 75.50 before moving up, and now we are at the chop high (87.25 from above). So from this few days perspective we could roll down any time but a push up and a roll wuold be nicer for us in terms of potential to the downside.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Waiting for a break - whether that's today or in a number of days time, it's hard to know.
- At a major inflection point at the same time, so wary of headfakes
- No trading between 81.50 and 87.25 unless it's off the open
- A wait & see day - there's going to be good opportunity when this breaks, so waiting for that

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2375.50 -> 2390.75
Value - 2382 -> 2387
S1 - 2365.75, R1 - 2394.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2375.50 -> 2386 / 2386.25
Value - 2379.25 -> 2383.25
Globex 2381.25 -> 2387

Settlement – 2383.25

Today - 2381.50, 2387.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400
 

Jigsaw-trading.png 

 

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Topics: Market Updates