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How to Search for High-Probability Trades: Performance Coaches' Trading Combine

Posted by TopstepTrader on September 21, 2017

Like they should, our Performance Coaches are treating the $50K Trading Combine® as though it is real money. That's why they didn't trade today - they're in a drawdown and need to control their emotions so that they don't violate one of TopstepTrader's rules.

The next two or three trades will either recoup much of their current losses or put them dangerously close to their max loss. Here's what they were looking at throughout the trading day. 

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High-probability trades were no where to be found.

Today was an inside day for the Emini S&P 500 ($ESZ7), with the contract trading much of the day in a tight 2-point range (following the morning low being established). With the price hovering in the middle of yesterday's range, there were no real opportunities for a 2:1 risk-to-reward ratio.

Similarly, Crude Oil ($CLX7) futures moved in what seemed like a $0.20 range after trying to break out to the downside early. They hit a low this morning at $50.10 - potentially a buying opportunity since it was right at yesterday's low. However, the Coaches weren't confident $50.10 would be enough support (or whether prices would instead test overnight lows). Not the right trade for them.

30-Year U.S. Treasury Bonds weren't much more accommodating today either. At the open, prices looked well bid - hitting a high of 154'17 before settling down as equities came off their daily lows. As equities moved back higher, bonds quickly lost their bid and gravitated towards the 154 handle.

Despite that movement and even in hindsight, the potential trades weren't high-probability trades. Shorting bonds at 154'17 would mean that you are taking the short above yesterday's high. So, while that would have turned out to be a great trade, it's not one that our Coaches would take.

Make sure you follow us on Twitter for all the latest updates in #CoachesCombine (@topsteptrader):

Total performance for the day, including fees and commissions: $0. Balance is $48,749.04. For more, check out their Trading Combine dashboard below.

Day 12 Trading Combine.jpg

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Topics: Performance Coaching, Trading Combine, Trading Basics